Afghanistan and Pakistan Conflict Ramps Up in the shadow of the Iran War; Ignoring Isn't an OptionThe longer the fight continues, the greater its intensity, the more urgent are the questions: What comes next and how to stop the war from engulfing the region, to include India?
Photo on left taken by Kathy Gannon at Kabul Airport, Afghanistan. Photo on the right f Pakistani soldiers on the border with Afghanistan taken by Anja Niedringhaus While the world watches the war in Iran escalate and violence spread throughout the Middle East, nearby in nuclear armed South Asia the war between Afghanistan and Pakistan is ramping up and rhetoric is becoming more threatening. India’s newly established friendship with Afghanistan’s Taliban government last year dramatically escalated the dangers of a larger conflagration engulfing this region that could bring nuclear armed neighbors, India and Pakistan, closer to another war in less than a year. India has considerably upgraded its embassy in Kabul, stopping short of diplomatic recognition, but going far enough to worry Pakistan, which accuses India of sponsoring and financing anti-Pakistan militants hiding in Afghanistan. Islamabad says India and the Afghan Taliban government is using militants to carry out relentless and deadly attacks inside Pakistan, most often against military positions. Afghanistan and India have repeatedly laid the same charges at Pakistan’s doorstep. Meanwhile countries, which previously mediated cease fires between Afghanistan and Pakistan, like Turkey or Qatar, are pre- occupied with their own war, and unable to offer mediation. Today there is no sign of de-escalation. Instead, as the war in Iran rages on, and the world’s attention is riveted on the Middle East, the battle between Pakistan and Afghanistan is heating up. The attacks have increased dramatically, and the threats have become more targeted, causing Pakistan to issue an official statement saying it is not and has no intention of pursuing regime change in Afghanistan. Rather it says its objective is to dismantle militant support networks and establish border safety. But the specter has been raised. In just the last 48 hours, Pakistan claims its Air Force has conducted 56 missions into Afghanistan, targeting ammunition depots and drone storage units, destroying numerous government check posts, and seizing control of several others. The air attacks have included the capital Kabul, southern Kandahar and eastern Jalalabad. These actions have largely gone unnoticed internationally, overshadowed by the intense and deadly developments in Iran and the wider Middle East, as the conflict initiated by Israel and the United States, continues with no immediate end in sight. Afghanistan’s Ministry of National Defense says many civilians, including children have been killed, or wounded in Pakistan’s attacks. However it too offered its own list of claims of attacks deep inside Pakistan, saying they are using scores of drones and heavy weapons in their attacks. The Afghan ministry statement said it hit Pakistan’s Nur Khan Air Force Base, not far from the Pakistan capital of Islamabad, a claim Pakistan has flatly denied. Afghanistan also says it targeted an army corps headquarters in Quetta, the capital of Pakistan’s troubled southwestern Baluchistan province and several more military installations in Pakistan’s former tribal regions that border Afghanistan as well as in Baluchistan. Pakistani officials, were quoted in local newspapers saying its assault on Afghanistan, dubbed Ghazab lil Haq or loosely translated Wrath of Justice, will be “taken to its logical end” suggesting it could be prolonged, and without elaborating on what the logical end might look like. However the longer the fight continues and the greater the intensity the more urgent are the questions: What comes next and how to stop the war from engulfing the region, to include India. Adding to the volatile uncertainty of the region, is last week’s visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Israel, just two days before Israel’s attack on Iran. Pakistan has looked with suspicion on the meeting and the security deals signed during that visit. Modi and Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu signed a number of significant defense deals valued at around $8 to $10 billion . The joint statement that followed the meeting between Netanyahu and Modi focused largely on increased defense and security cooperation. On more than one occasion the statement said the two leaders agreed to “stand shoulder to shoulder” to fight terrorism. In the past when Modi has spoken of terrorism he has directed his comments at Pakistan, accusing Islamabad of state-sponsored terrorism and of using terrorist groups to attack India, most often linked to the disputed Kashmir region, a former princely state that is divided between the two countries, but claimed by both in its entirety. At one time or another all three countries, Pakistan, India and Afghanistan, have charged the other with using militants as proxies against the other. Indeed evidence has emerged over the years to suggest all three countries are guilty of using militants as proxies. Today’s global uncertainty and unpredictability has created a fear that in the shadows of the war on Iran, as the world’s attention and resources are directed elsewhere, the smoldering war between Pakistan and Afghanistan could escalate to engulf the region. The last war between Indian and Pakistan was just last May, when Delhi blamed Islamabad for a terrorist assault in April on Pahalgram in Indian-controlled Kashmir that killed 26 civilians. Pakistan denied involvement in the attack. India launched missiles and strikes deep inside Pakistan saying it was targeting camps belonging to terrorist groups, Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba, both anti-Indian groups. Pakistan said India targeted civilians and responded with missile and air attacks, downing five Indian fighter jets, aided by Chinese technology. Washington later corroborated the downing of the jets including French-made Rafale jets. A cease-fire was brokered on May 10, to a conflict that began on May 7. Both sides declared victory, but Pakistan’s success in the air suggested a noticeable shift in the power dynamics of the region. It also ramped up the belligerent rhetoric that continues today. Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari in a speech to a joint session of Parliament this week said while Pakistan always seeks dialogue, any aggressor ”should prepare for another humiliating defeat,” a lightly veiled reference to neighbor India and last May’s brief confrontation. The military capabilities of both countries are formidable. There is no exact knowledge of the number of nuclear weapons either Pakistan or India possess, but the latest Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates India has about 180 and Pakistan 170. The conventional arsenal of both countries is considerable and while India has an active military force of roughly 1.4 to 1.6 million active military personnel, Pakistan has about 650,000 active personnel. India has the world’s second largest military based on the number of active military personnel, according to The Global Firepower’s 2025 ranking. Pakistan is number seven. Based on overall military power which includes equipment, logistics, economics, training terrain, among a variety of other metrics, Global Firepower ranks India’s military at 4 and Pakistan at 14. © 2026 Kathy Gannon |